Ethiopian Yearbook of International Law 2017. For example, Ethiopians and Egyptians are more likely to understand and appreciate the challenges that they face, particularly in the areas of water security, climate change, food production, and poverty alleviation, if they regularly interact with each other and engage in more bottom-up, participatory and inclusive approaches to the resolution of their conflicts. On the surface, the 558 ft tall dam Africa's biggest hydropower project belies Ethiopia's financial muscle. In turn, Egypt water policy and management should be changes or modified to overcome the great challenges. Although the case has been dropped, the organisations work focused international attention on the dams potential detrimental impacts on the lakes habitat. Poverty alleviation, which is a major concern for all Nile Basin countries, could form the basis of a cooperative arrangement between all the Niles riparians. Ethiopia, one of the poorest countries in Africa, has the second largest population in the continent. From this round of talks, it appears that negotiations are able to move forward and address other sticking points on the agenda, such as conflict resolution mechanisms and the dams operations in the event of multi-year droughts (Al Jazeera, 2020). Cairo - U.S. Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa Ambassador Mike Hammer met with senior Egyptian government officials on July 25 to advance a diplomatic resolution on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) that supports the water needs, economy, and livelihood of all Egyptians, Sudanese, and Ethiopians. A series of talks since then have largely failed to produce a consensus among the concerned countries, with tensions rising again after Ethiopia announced its intention to begin filling the dam in July 2020. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is a 6,450 MW hydropower project nearing completion on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia, located about 30 km upstream of the border with Sudan. Feb 11th 2021 DAMS HAVE several uses. Kandeel, A. Cairo . Al Jazeera (2020). GIGA Focus No. Faced with the anachronistic Nile Waters Treaties on the one hand and the absence of a suitable replacement on the other, discussions about the Dam have fallen into something of a stalemate. While this means new opportunities to develop extended irrigation-based agriculture for the Sudanese, it represents also a new threat for Egypts current Nile water utilisation (Whittington et al., 2014). "The Israeli installation of the missile system around the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam was completed after the Israeli work began in May 2019, considering that it is the first Israeli air defense system abroad that can launch (two types of missiles), the first with a range of 5 km, and the second with a range of 50 kilometer". The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will have negative impacts not only on Egypt but also on poor communities in Ethiopia as well as on its Nile Basin neighbours Ethiopia's strategy for dam construction goes far beyond developmental goals. The Political Deadlock on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. These countries should return to the NBIs Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), which was concluded in 2010, try to resolve the disagreements that caused Egypt and Sudan to decline to sign the CFA, and use it as a model for a future binding legal regime. The GDP per capita in Ethiopia is only $475. Already, on June 19, 2020, Egyptian authorities called upon the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to intervene after tripartite talks had failed to secure an agreement on the filling schedule for the GERD. Challenges for water sharing in the Nile basin: changing geo-politics and changing climate. In June 2020, tensions escalated when Ethiopia declared its intent to fill the dam in July without an agreement, which again led to Egypt and Sudan requesting UNSC intervention on the matter (Kandeel, 2020). Chinese banks provided financing for the purchase of the turbines and electrical equipment for the hydroelectric plants. Hence, it seems that such an argument would receive a warm welcome from the current bench were the matter ever to be adjudicated there. 4. Indeed, Principle II notes that the purpose of the [Dam] is for power generation and regional integration through generation of sustainable and reliable clean energy supply. This is crucial given that hydroelectricity generation simply involves holding water back behind a dam for a period of time, and then releasing it again in a managed manner so that the electric turbines can spin consistently. In my opinion, this should be negotiable, to fill the lake over a longer period, and only when the river is sufficiently full. Therefore, a negotiated position that favours Ethiopia is likely to be reached once it becomes politically palatable enough inside Egypt. The Zenawi concept of a Strong Ethiopia envisions the country as a powerful hydroelectric energy hub exporting electricity to Djibouti and Somalia in the east, Kenya and Uganda to the south, and Sudan to the west. The Friends of Lake Turkana, an NGO representing indigenous groups whose livelihoods are dependent on the Lake, filed a suit to halt the construction of the dam. The above-mentioned Gilgel Gibe III Dam stood out as the worlds most controversial dam until the GERD. There are three key articles. In that light, Egypt should minimize trips to Washington, D.C., New York, and Brussels, and instead use its diplomatic resources to improve its relations with the other riparian states. The dispute resolution committee could be made up of the Nile Council of Ministers (Nile-COM), which includes the ministers in charge of water affairs in all member states of the Nile River Basin. After announcing the dam's construction, and with a view to the increasing tensions, the Ethiopian government invited both Egypt and Sudan to form an International Panel of Experts (IPoE) to solicit understanding of the benefits, costs and impacts of the GERD. Water scarcity is a growing problem. Across Ethiopia, poor farmers and rich business executives alike . The IPoE report recommended two studies to assess the environmental and socio-economic impacts of GERD and was interpreted by both the Egyptian and the Ethiopian government as a vindication of their respective positions. Misplaced Opposition to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): Update. Nevertheless, Egypt must not use sympathy for its water vulnerability as a weapon to frustrate the efforts of the other riparians to secure an agreement that is balanced, fair, and equitable. The $4 billion hydroelectric dam . But the project has caused concern. Learn. Success on this endeavor will only occur under a legally binding regime that ensures mutually beneficial rights. Egypt Forced to Negotiate on Nile Dam. Whittington, D. et al. However, an agreement was still far from reach. Created by. It is therefore intrinsically connected with the question of land ownership. In terms of the current status of talks, in 2019, US Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin began facilitating negotiations between Egypt and Ethiopia which led to some tentative progress. These conflicts could take the form of international armed conflicts (between states), non-international armed conflicts between a group and a state, or conflicts between non-state groups. Ethiopia announced in April 2011 that it intends to build four large dams on the Nile, including one of the largest in the world, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (formerly known as Project X or the Grand Millennium Dam).This huge dam will flood 1,680 square kilometers of forest in northwest Ethiopia, near the Sudan border, and create a reservoir that is nearly twice as large as Lake Tana . The multi-services provided by the hydropower development and its technical advantages could be driving forces for local, regional and national development, and a catalyst for sustainable development. Cairo Controversy prevailed in the Egyptian public opinion, after Deltares, a Dutch advisory institute, announced on Sept. 15 its withdrawal from a study to assess the risks that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which is under construction on the Blue Nile, can cause to Egypt and Sudan. The Kenyan Lake is heavily dependent on the fresh water and vital nutrients supplied by the rivers annual floods, making it a paradise for fisheries. "I came to Cairo on my first official trip to the region to hear . Indeed, Sudan had initially opposed the Dam but changed its position in 2012 after consultations with Ethiopia. It's free to sign up and bid on jobs. At stake, too, is . While such dams also come with long-term benefits to local populations, the chief beneficiary will always be the state, which reaps profits from the sale of surplus electricity. According to this narrative, the Blue Nile, or Abay in Amharic, is a purely Ethiopian river. Download PDF 1.40 MB. Egypt, which lies 1,600 miles downstream of the Dam, believes its operation will reduce the amount of fresh water available to it from the Nile. What Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia must overcome to all benefit from the Grand Renaissance Dam. For example, in 2017, the UNSC highlighted the security risks of water stress in the Lake Chad Basin Region, affecting Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria, based on a combination of water scarcity, drought, desertification and land degradation. 1800m long and 170m high. Second, regarding the 1902 Anglo-Ethiopian Treaty, although Ethiopia was a party and although that instrument does deal with the flow of water on the Nile, its terms are strictly limited. Given agricultures importance to pro-poor economic growth, Egypt, which has significant experience and expertise in irrigation agriculture, can share some of that expertise with other countries in exchange for increased trade with them. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) constitutes a real crisis for the Egyptian regime, where Ethiopia several times blamed Egypt for the failure of negotiations conducted between Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia on the dam. The New Arab (2020a). On Feb. 26, Ethiopia temporarily suspended its . Such a mitigation program can make it much easier for Egyptian and Sudanese authorities to cooperate with Ethiopia and the other riparians in creating and adopting an agreement for management of the Nile. for seepage and evaporation, but afforded no water to Ethiopia or other upstream riparian statesthe sources of most of the water that flows into the Nile. The Grand Renaissance Dam and prospects for cooperation on the Eastern Nile. Egypt says. Ethiopia could argue that those imperial powers did not foresee the decolonisation of Africa and that this represented a watershed event that profoundly changed the foundation on which the Nile Water Treaties were constructed. In recognition of the fact that the Nile Waters Treaties had become an uncomfortable and anachronistic vestige of colonialism, ten watercourse states along the Nile (including Egypt and Ethiopia) agreed in 1999 to form the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI). Most recently, there have been suggestions that the African Union should resolve the disagreement. The countrys 2003 development plan introduced many more, and the Ethiopian government launched an ambitious PR campaign to encourage donor nations and international funding agencies to support these projects financially and ideologically as the highway to Ethiopian development and prosperity. Sima Aldardari. The 1902 Treaty did not preclude Ethiopia from undertaking works that might reduce, but not arrest, the flow of waters. However, it also entails potential negative effects on Egypt, if not carefully managed (see alsoSecurity implications of growing water scarcity in Egypt). This article considers water security in the context of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (the Dam). Perhaps even more consequential is the fact that this agreement granted Egypt veto power over future Nile River projects. The GERD has the potential to act both as driver for conflict, but also for cooperation. This represents a new challenge to the basins current hydro-political regime and status quo, as it may drive Sudans interest in renegotiating its current quota(Link et al., 2012;Whittington et al., 2014). However, the DoP lacks these key traits, and these omissions suggest that it may simply be a non-binding declaration designed to ease political tensions and to illuminate a way forward. Another argument Egypt might adduce concerns the DoP. The Nile-COM is the highest political and decisionmaking body of the NBI. Although Egypt and Sudan are likely to resist efforts to include the other upstream riparians in the negotiations or to allow a regional organization, such as the NBI, to serve as an implementing organ, they must understand that the Nile River is a regional watercourse and its management must be approached from a regional perspective. Afraid that a drought might appear during the filling period, Egypt wants the filling to take place over a much longer period. It will take between eight and ten years to fill the new dam. Indeed, as Tekuya notes, Ethiopia persistently objected to the 1929 and 1959 treaties and made clear that its failure to exploit the Nile resulted from a lack of capacity rather than a lack of a legal right to do so. Ethiopian general threatens military force to defend Nile dam as negotiations with Egypt falter. Ethiopia is pinning its hopes of economic development and power generation on the dam. The politicisation of the Niles water and the utilisation of development projects to achieve political ends are not new phenomena. If it is allowed to reach dangerous levels, water scarcity has the potential to trigger conflicts. Swain, A. You must have JavaScript enabled to use this form. Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam. Lastly, over-year storage facilities upstream in Ethiopia will allow Sudan to increase its water use. 2011. how much does the reservoir contain? However, it also makes useful concessions to Egypt which it may wish to press. These are two of the largest dams in Africa. Churning waters: Strategic shifts in the Nile basin. This is on the basis of the principles of State succession as outlined in the Vienna Convention on the Succession of States (VCSS). Flashcards. No water at all was allocated to Ethiopia. Attia, H. & Saleh, M. (2021). The Watercourses Convention aims to regulate the uses, as well as the conservation, of all transboundary waters above and below the surface. This is hardly a revelation, as this strategy has long been foremost in the minds of the ruling elites in Addis Ababa and supported by the international powers. Yet, Ethiopia is fully aware of Somalias economic dependence on the rivers originating from Ethiopias highlands. The Gerd is expected to generate over 5,000 megawatts of electricity, doubling the nation's . In response, Ethiopia threatened military force to defend the dam and protect its interests (The New Arab, 2020a). Ethiopia Needs the United States to Act as an Honest Broker in the Nile . This exception was implemented to mitigate the risk of decolonisation leading to boundary wars. Match. The Dam is used to generate electricity and went into partial operation in 2022. Gebreluel, G. (2014). Similarly, in 2018, the UNSC noted the water security risks in African nations such as Somalia, Sudan and Mali. European countries including Italy, Belgium and especially the UK controlled the Nile as part of colonisation and the broader Scramble for Africa. These colonising states used the tactic of concluding treaties (often at gunpoint) to secure their interests and, in this case, essentially prohibit upstream states from using their own waters. Sudan is caught between the competing interests of Egypt and Ethiopia. Match. It will also give Ethiopia more control . This was an attempt at a wholesale replacement for the Nile Waters Treaties. However, as noted above, the trouble with relying on the DoP is that its legal status is not clearly defined. Why the Nile could see a 'water war'. In my opinion, this should be negotiable, to fill the lake over a longer period, and only when the river is sufficiently full. The Tripartite National Council (TNC) was then established, consisting of members from each of the three countries with the aim of carrying through the IPoE's recommendations (Attia & Saleh, 2021). The Nile is not a boundary-delimiting river, hence Ethiopia would almost certainly argue that the exception should not be applied here. Ethiopias strategy for dam construction goes far beyond developmental goals. Test. India dispatch: Supreme Court limits DNA paternity testing in divorce proceedings, prioritizing childrens privacy rights, US dispatch: Texas case could limit access to abortion medication, Copyright infringement made federal crime. As a hydroelectric project, the dam is expected to generate 6,000 megawatts of electricity. It states in Principle III that the parties shall take all appropriate measures to prevent the causing of significant harm. The withdrawal from the project by Deltares has been met by a wave of objections in Egypt for fear . The three fillings hitherto, with the most recent in August 2022, imposed no discernible harm on downstream states. This agreement could pave the way for a more detailed cooperation framework, and represents a major step toward dispute resolution. l It is in the Benishangul-Gumuz Region of Ethiopia, about 15 km east of the border with Sudan. On the contrary, GERD has a positive impact in terms of reducing flood and silting and boost water conservation as well as generate energy for the region. The situation seemed to improve in the beginning of 2015 when tripartite negotiations were held in order to determine principles of cooperation. L'Europe en Formation, 365(3), 99-138. If Egyptian authorities refuse to abandon these anachronistic treatieswhich have created untenable water-use rights that benefit only itself and Sudanall parties will remain at an impasse. "The Blue Nile is the lifeblood of Egypt and its people and critics fear the dam could significantly reduce water flow to the country." "Climate change is such a big unknown. These run from rising rivalry between Egypt and Ethiopia to a festering border war between Ethiopia and neighboring Sudan. Ethiopia has the basins most suitable locations for hydropower production, and its damming of the Blue Nile would significantly increase Sudan's potential for irrigated agriculture. Ethiopia has never 'consumed' significant shares of the Nile's water so far, as its previous political and economic fragility in combination with a lack of external financial support, due to persistent Egyptian opposition to projects upstream, prevented it from implementing large-scale projects. Ethiopia and Sudan are currently developing and implementing water infrastructure developments unilaterally - as Egypt has done in the past and continues to do. Ethiopia, with a population of more than 115 million people and Projected to be 230 million by 2050. Addis Ababa launched the construction of the GERD under Zenawi, and work on it has proceeded at full steam ahead ever since. Water scarcity is a growing problem. But the Ethiopian elites show little interest in addressing such concerns, bent as they are on a nationalist revivalist project that claims an Ethiopian exceptionalism that places Addis Ababa above international law as it pursues a water-management strategy that has less to do with its development aims than with its ambitions to weaponise water in a bid for regional hegemony. Disadvantages Slow process Could be washed to the wrong direction Start up costs Lesson 4: Long term investment, It can't cope with he propagation rate of water hyacinth. Also, the Sudanese Foreign Ministry later held the Egyptian side accountable for failure of these negotiations. A major reason the GERD is so controversial today is that it has not been subjected to thorough safety and impact studies, which could pose a grave threat to downriver nations. First, Ethiopia could highlight that it was not a party to either the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty or the 1959 Egypt-Sudan Treaty. In short, the Nile Waters Treaties do little to constrain Ethiopias ability to construct the Dam. the study highlights the importance of weighing up the advantages and disadvantages of counter-hegemonic tactics in general, and of large dam projects in particular, and . Both citizens and governments should be made part of the solution to the water-related conflicts that now threaten peace and security in the Nile Basin. It concludes that Ethiopias legal position is far stronger and that a negotiated agreement in its favour is the most likely outcome of the dispute. Match facts: Egypts Ahly v South Africas Mamelodi Sundowns (CAF Champions.. Kevin Harts first Egypt show cancelled 'due to local logistical issues', Match facts: Sudans Al-Hilal v Egypts Ahly (CAF Champions League), Match facts: Egypts Ahly v Cameroons Coton Sport (CAF Champions League), Egyptian Premier League results & scorers (20th matchday), Spain La Liga results & scorers (21st matchday), 13 Egyptian women on Forbes Middle East 100 Most Powerful businesswomen 2023, Egyptian Premier League results & fixtures (18th matchday), English Premier League results & scorers (23rd matchday), Prioritising the best solutions for sustainable development, A new beginning for education and beyond, Prioritizing the UN's Global Development Agenda, US-Africa Leaders Summit: Between expectations and realities. It merely provides at Article III that Ethiopia undertakes not to construct any work across the Blue Nile, Lake Tsana, or the Sobat which would arrest the flow of their waters into the Nile. In other words, Ethiopia only agreed that it would not completely stop the flow of tributaries into the Nile.
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